It's a Noisy World Out There • Linda Rising • GOTO 2023

This presentation was recorded at GOTO Chicago 2023. #GOTOcon #GOTOchgo https://gotochgo.com Linda Rising - Queen of Patterns & Author of Numerous Books RESOURCES https://twitter.com/RisingLinda https://linkedin.com/in/lindarising http://lindarising.org ABSTRACT Most of us know how cognitive biases affect our decision making, thanks to the work of Daniel Kahneman and his important book Thinking Fast and Slow. Fewer of us know how noise affects our thinking. Noise here means the variability in inputs and cognitive processing we contend with when making individual and collective judgments. Noise comes from a variety of sources. We are affected by the time of day, the weather, if our favorite sports team just won or lost. One study found that judges in Louisiana gave harsher sentences to kids, especially black kids, in the week after the LSU college football team lost a game. Everyone is now focused on reducing bias, but in many cases, noise is a greater source of error than bias. Linda will introduce you to some surprising research about noise and decision making and offer suggestions for reducing noise. Note: if you reduce noise, you will also reduce bias. As Kahneman has said, "Wherever there is judgment, there is noise and more of it than you think." [...] TIMECODES 00:00 Intro 02:26 How do we make decisions? 08:59 Paul Meehl 13:16 Oregon Research Institute 21:39 What about algorithms? 23:43 Noise 27:07 Ask the right question 28:48 Bias vs noise 35:21 What to do? 40:35 Hiring & interviews 44:55 Estimations are bad 47:58 Inside vs outside views 49:17 Reducing noise reduces bias 51:01 Don't eliminate intuition 51:30 Summary 51:48 Outro Download slides and read the full abstract here: https://gotochgo.com/2023/sessions/2511 RECOMMENDED BOOKS Linda Rising • Design Patterns in Communications Software • https://amzn.to/2XsxDCg Linda Rising • The Pattern Almanac 2000 • https://amzn.to/3kfgIfi Linda Rising • The Patterns Handbook • https://amzn.to/3lxDPAS Linda Rising • Fearless Change • https://amzn.to/3AfvyrK Linda Rising • More Fearless Change • https://amzn.to/2Z3bYBh Daniel Kahneman • Noise • https://amzn.to/3uTazNo Daniel Kahneman • Thinking, Fast and Slow • https://amzn.to/2XmJEtf Thaler & Sunstein • Nudge • https://amzn.to/3CglrmX Dan Ariely • Predictably Irrational • https://amzn.to/3lyDBd7 Robert B Cialdini • Influence, New and Expanded • https://amzn.to/3tL8GxB https://twitter.com/GOTOcon https://www.linkedin.com/company/goto- https://www.instagram.com/goto_con https://www.facebook.com/GOTOConferences #Noise #ThinkingFastandSlow #LindaRising #DanielKahneman #Productivity #DeveloperProductivity #Focus #Concentration #HumanFactor #PaulMeehl #Intuition CHANNEL MEMBERSHIP BONUS Join this channel to get early access to videos & other perks: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCs_tLP3AiwYKwdUHpltJPuA/join Looking for a unique learning experience? Attend the next GOTO conference near you! Get your ticket at https://gotopia.tech Sign up for updates and specials at https://gotopia.tech/newsletter SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHANNEL - new videos posted almost daily. https://www.youtube.com/user/GotoConferences/?sub_confirmation=1